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What is the first step in an event tree analysis?

  1. Identification of potential outcomes

  2. Identification of potential initiating events

  3. Analysis of past events

  4. Documentation of events

The correct answer is: Identification of potential initiating events

The first step in an event tree analysis is the identification of potential initiating events. In the context of risk assessment, an initiating event is a specific event or condition that can start a sequence of events leading to an accident or failure. Proper identification of these initiating events is critical, as they form the basis for understanding how various scenarios may unfold and the possible outcomes that can arise from them. By focusing on these initiating events initially, analysts can then construct the event tree, which visually represents the progression of events that follow the initiator. This structured approach allows for a thorough evaluation of the subsequent outcomes and their implications for safety and risk management. Identifying potential outcomes, analyzing past events, or documenting events, while important in their own right, come after the initial identification of initiating events in the sequence of an effective event tree analysis.